Secrets de Marketeurs

What is the Magic number 7+-2 bias?

There is Magic number 7+-2 bias (also known as Peak-end rule) which is a cognitive bias that says:

« We remember best the first and last items in a series, and the middle items are forgotten or remembered as average ».

It means that we tend to neglect or forget details of an experience. Instead, we focus on broader impression and memorable peaks and valleys.

This is a way to simplify our memory by reducing information into just few significant data points.

But this tendency can be used for good reasons too:

For example, remembering dramatic moments from your vacation helps you to enjoy it even more next time, because it will enhance your experience. And so does remembering high notes from great performances you watched makes you engage even more with those artists.

What is the history of the bias?

The Magic number 7+-2 was first described by Gestalt psychologists in 1927 and then again in 1932, when Solomon Asch showed it’s a cognitive bias too. They noticed that we can’t remember all details from our memory at once and we tend to simplify information into just few significant data points.

How does this bias work?

The Magic number 7+-2 is one of the many biases which are related to our memory . Our brain has limited capacity to store memories, so during encoding process (when we learn something) it makes less details, but makes them more memorable for better storage. For example if you make top 10 lists and then you try to remember them, you won’t be able to do this. But if I ask you just 1 or 2 things from that list, you will probably remember it instantly.

In other words our brain have tendency to reduce information into just few significant data points for better storage and organization.

Why this bias is dangerous?

Using this bias in wrong way can cause major problems, but using it correctly can help us a lot too. That’s why we should learn how to use it properly:

When we make top 10 lists , we focus on the best things only , forgetting all others details. This makes our life worse because we don’t learn very well even though we think about some topics a lot . For example somebody who reads books about philosophy, tries to memorize all of its rules and ideas. But at the end he will remember just few , making this person an expert in some parts of it, but worthless in others .

Why do people use this bias?

Everyone uses the Magic number 7+-2 occasionally subconsciously, because it helps us a lot . It saves our memory power by reducing information into just few significant data points for better storage and organization. For example when you listen to music or watch movies, you can remember just few important details in your life. And when you are having an interview, you can easily recall top 3 things about it.

How do people use this bias?

There are many ways to use the Magic number 7+-2, but one of the best is by writing list posts , because it helps us to save time and make better decisions . After all, who doesn’t like lists with short summaries? Or even jokes where punch line is at the end.

Another way is to show something that has unique features or benefits , instead of showing unique features or benefits of each thing separately. For example if I say: « New luxury cars have every feature that standard models have plus new ones on enhanced safety and comfort level » you will probably ignore it. But if I say: « New luxury cars are the best standard models made better » for sure you will pay attention to this statement.

How can we create this bias?

To make most out of the Magic number 7+-2, we should use lists , punch lines and features . It’s easy way to catch somebody’s attention with that list or joke, because he knows that something good is coming! So no one wants to miss it.

And by using features instead of benefits alone, anyone can sell his product without actually talking about each thing separately, which makes him sound less boring.

How to avoid this bias?

We all know how powerful the Magic number 7+-2 is, so we should use it in a good way, for example by writing posts about top 10 effective ways to do something. This will help us to save time and improve our productivity . And if you are interested in any kind of work , use this knowledge to sell yourself as an expert!

Magic number 7+-2 examples:

In interview process candidates usually have only one chance to impress employers, so they tend to focus on just few things that could be very memorable later , like their main achievements or special skills. For example when I was at job interview couple years ago, I was asked why I decided to leave my previous job . So I started telling them the story from beginning till end with all details. But after a couple minutes interviewer interrupted me and said something like: « Just tell us what is the main reason for leaving your job ». And I was surprised how he remembered it.

Which profession use the bias?

People, especially people with jobs who are doing different tasks every day , tend to take shortcuts and miss some important details . For example if you are working in a factory, all you need is to know what are the main things that should be done on your shift. Because when something goes wrong , other employees will ask you about it. And since for most people this knowledge is enough, they don’t take their job seriously . That’s why managers need to do daily inspections of each floor or department in order to control situation and make sure that everything is ok.

Furthermore if your work isn’t repetitive or boring , you can always use Magic number 7+-2 while making offers! Because if someone has more than 3 options how he could get something, there is a chance that he will consider only the most favorable one. So give him 3 options and if it’s not suitable for you , just suggest something better.

Conclusion.

As you can see, Magic number 7+-2 helps us to be more productive, so we should know how to use it properly in some specific situations . For example by telling short punch line jokes instead of long generic ones. Or writing list posts about top 10 effective ways to do something, or using features instead of benefits alone when selling some products. Furthermore if your interviewers asks questions that are always asked during job interviews , just remember that whatever you say will probably be remembered just for few moments . So after all, only one chance might create really good or bad first impression!

People are not perfect, but they are doing their best to make life better. So if you are interested in any kind of work , remember that everyone likes people who can be an expert in something , because it saves them time and makes them feel comfortable when dealing with you.

What is the Denomination effect?

When a price is given in a smaller denomination, people tend to perceive it as being lower than it actually is. This can be used in marketing and sales, for example when an item mentioned at $4.99 sounds much cheaper than one that costs $5.00.

This type of thinking leads to only seeing the cheaper price and ignoring the actual cost of something, leading to less money spent compared with if all prices were written out instead of just their respective denominations by which they are known (e.g., $1 or $2). For example, if you give someone $100 vs 100 singles, they’re more likely to spend the ones than the other person receiving the same amount of money.

Why does this cognitive bias exist?

This type of thinking is a result of people not paying as close attention to the difference between a higher denomination and a smaller denomination, leading to them taking in less information when they see it. This can be explained with an example: If you were going to give me $100 versus giving me 100 singles all at once, I’ll probably take the $100 because it’s simpler for my brain, but if you give one hundred singles, I will think about each individual bill and would probably count them up instead of just counting how many singles there are, again leading to me taking in more information than if I’d been given $100.

How do people use this bias?

In marketing, if a product is listed as $4.99 it sounds much cheaper than one that costs $5.00, which makes people more likely to buy the product for less money. This can be used to give the person less spending power and lead to them buying more things with what they have or spending more money on something because of its smaller price tag. This bias has been used in sales all over the world.

How can we create this bias?

This can happen by seeing numbers written out without thinking about it too hard compared with hearing a number but still writing it out instead of just sayings its monetary value (e.g., $1). For example, if you said « five dollars » instead of writing it out, you’re less likely to take in the number as much as if you were to say « five dollars. »

How to avoid this bias?

Try not exciting yourself too much about a price being cheaper than something else. Instead, try thinking of the full monetary value before buying or using or even just paying attention to things with prices, especially when someone is talking about them. For example, if your friend told you that they bought something for $4.99 instead of saying they bought something for $5., pay more attention to the actual amount being spent rather than just taking in how cheap it seems compared with something else that might cost more, which will help you understand better the amount being spent and stop getting ripped off through these types of tactics.

Denomination effect examples:

If I gave you $100 (or 100 singles), how do you know which denomination the money is in? You probably wouldn’t pay close attention to its monetary value and would most likely be less inclined to spend it if it was written out as « one dollar » versus saying « five dollars. » If this was not enough, say someone told you that they bought a product for $4.99 and then heard that their friend bought the same product for $5., which one would you rather buy? Again, the person paying more attention to the full monetary value is likely going to pick the one that’s listed with a larger denomination because they’re taking in more information as opposed to someone who’s not considering the monetary value of each bill and will take in less information.

Which profession use the bias?

Marketers, sales people, cashiers, waitstaff/servers, anyone who might want something from you.  Although the person giving a price might not be doing it to get something back or even mean to give this type of cognitive bias by saying or writing out their prices like that (e.g., $4.99), there are some people who would do it on purpose with bad intentions by trying to make things seem cheaper than they really are compared with using up all its denominations which can be done easily by just writing it out (e.g., $5.) which will lead to the person thinking about the product in more detail than if they’d been given $100 or 100 singles.

Why this bias is dangerous?

Since this is a cognitive bias, it’s also dangerous because when someone thinks deeper about something (e.g., what’s in it for me?) but not when they take in less information like through written out denominations instead of full monetary value (e.g., « one dollar » rather than « $1. »), that can give an unfair advantage in marketing or any other situation where there are price tags involved (e.g., the difference between taxable and non- taxable things). This can be used by marketers who want to increase sales numbers without actually changing prices of products themselves just by changing their ways of representing their prices, which can lead to higher sales and more money for companies through the principle of the  sunk cost fallacy .

Conclusion.

denomination effect is a cognitive bias where someone won’t take in the full information of something like if it’s written out as « $5. » or « five dollars » instead of taking in all its denominations (e.g., $1.) to give the person paying more thought to the amount they’re spending (and because people can be tricked into thinking things are cheaper than they really are), which will create an unfair advantage for marketers and salespeople who want to influence you more on your thoughts, behavior, and decision making through this type of method.

What is the Subadditivity effect?

The subadditivity effect is a cognitive bias that describes the tendency to judge probability of an event as less than the sum of its (more likely) constituent parts.

Subadditivity effect examples:

Psychological scientist Nicholas Epley and his colleagues described judgments of regret in one study, finding that people were more likely to regret actions they took than inaction they did not take when making choices. If we fail to go skydiving, we do not regret it; however, if we do go skydiving and something bad happens, we often come to regret our decision. On the other hand, if we go skydiving and achieve a wonderful outcome (e.g., enjoy ourselves), then this success may mitigate any sense of regret.

Why this bias is dangerous?

This subadditivity effect leads us to systematically underestimate the likelihood of high-risk events, creating the potential for dangerous situations.

For example, imagine that you are planning to order sushi or Italian food at a restaurant tonight. You think it is more likely that they will run out of your first option (sushi), rather than both options (sushi and Italian). If you’re like most people, you would choose an option other than sushi as your first choice. However, it is likely that restaurants carry both items on hand far more often than just one type of cuisine (i.e., subadditivity effect). This means it is actually less likely that they will run out of both items when compared to just sushi. The subadditivity effect can predict virtually any decision when probabilities are being estimated, including gambling odds in a casino or the likelihood that a certain product will be in stock at a store.

Why do people use this bias?

Both human and computer decision-making systems have been shown to exhibit the subadditivity effect by systematically underestimating rare events in probability estimates. This means that it is common for us to miss opportunities because we see continuing with our current course of action as less risky than branching off into something new – especially if it is an opportunity filled with uncertainty. It is easier to stick with what we know rather than make decisions about what might happen if we took another path In the case of continuing with your current plan, you are almost guaranteed to succeed because it is already in place. But, where branching off into another path may lead to failure (i.e., if the restaurant runs out of both choices), this possibility is not factored into our decision-making process, which leads us to believe that other options are less likely than they actually are.

How do people use this bias?

The subadditivity effect tends to be more prevalent when there are high levels of uncertainty associated with a decision or problem solving because cognitive mechanisms have evolved over time for minimizing risk and threat. This means that our brains will always default toward maintaining the status quo so as not to create undue stress on the mind – when there is uncertainty, we should stay where we are. This phenomenon is likely to be the result of evolutionary pressures that led our ancestors to value risk aversion and avoidance when faced with uncertain situations (i.e., « better safe than sorry »).

How can we create this bias?

We can demonstrate the subadditivity effect in real-world settings using games such as “Would You Rather?,” which ask participants to choose between two options: one risky and one certain. It is common for people to prefer a sure thing over a gamble – especially if they believe there is a high likelihood that both options will be available in the future. In these cases, it may be helpful for decision makers to consider extreme or catastrophic outcomes that are most salient to them. For instance, individuals might consider the high likelihood of regret if they chose not to go skydiving and they come out alive versus the most likely outcome of enjoying themselves during their session.

How to avoid this bias?

Subadditivity effect can be minimized by focusing on large or catastrophic consequences that are associated with your choice(s) – these outcomes tend to have a strong emotional pull relative to more mundane, common events. It is important for decision makers to examine similar scenarios in order to determine which options are really unlikely over time (e.g., an email survey asking users how often does their favorite restaurant run out of two different types of food versus just one). This will help you build an accurate mental model of how likely certain things are to happen, which will enable you to make decisions with greater confidence in the future.

Subadditivity effect examples:

A person gets an email notification that they have won $5,000; they choose not to enter their email address for another contest because they believe that one chance is enough (i.e., subadditivity effect). A person makes a purchase online but goes on Facebook instead of submitting it – believing this action will increase their chances of winning the lottery (i.e., subadditivity effect). A salesperson tries to sell multiple products together versus selling them separately (i.e., subadditivity effect).. An investor buys stock in Google’s IPO and sells it off in chunks (i.e., subadditivity effect).

Which profession use the bias?

The subadditivity effect is commonly used by salespeople, marketers, and advertisers to persuade people into buying products that they normally would not. We see this occurring most often with large-ticket items where risk aversion tends to be high (e.g., cars). The reason why these kinds of decisions are prone to the subadditivity effect is that we tend to value certain things over hypothetical outcomes – as a result, we will often prioritize short term gain even if it stands in opposition to long term benefit.

Conclusion.

The Subadditivity effect is rooted in evolutionary pressures that led our ancestors to value risk aversion and avoidance when faced with uncertain situations; it manifests in many real-world settings (e.g., games like “Would You Rather?,” surveys) when there are high levels of uncertainty associated with decision or problem solving. The size or impact of consequences can help you become more accurate with your decisions in the future, which will help you make better choices over time!

What is the Survivorship bias?

Survivorship bias is a cognitive or information processing bias that refers to the tendency of survivors to have some advantage over non-survivors. For example, if you compare two companies on several factors, but one company has gone under while the other is still operating successfully, the comparison between them becomes irrelevant since only one of them can be ‘best’.

Why this bias is dangerous?

This happens every day in many forms throughout our lives. It’s not always easy to spot and it can be hard to accept we could ever fall victim. However, it’s often not until we realize we were mistaken in believing we made a choice based on sound logic and reasoning that we begin to see just how much damage it might do to our lives.

Why do people use this bias?

Since survivorship bias makes it harder to give a fair assessment of the expected outcome, it can lead to poor decision-making. It prompts consumers to buy products or services based on past performance because they have survived in an intense battle for survival where only the best survive. This way, when you are assessing alternatives in any field, make sure that the choices you consider still exist. Also, if there is no data available for certain aspect of interest, ask yourself what happened to non-survivors in that area and then adjust your expectations accordingly before making decisions. Finally, avoid comparing how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ you are feeling against others around you since this usually happens because you compare yourself with those who have survived and hence un-fairly lower your expectations.

How do people use this bias?

The only way to avoid the effects of Survivorship Bias is to know about it and try our best to check our own thinking, before we make a final judgement on any matter – especially important matters that can affect future – such as investments or career choice. So we should carefully consider what we see around us and what we see in the media but not let our observations cloud our judgment about how likely it is for something to happen. Our chances may be better than we think they are if we look at all the relevant information instead of only looking at survivors.

Can we create this bias?

As in the previous example, how can we make Survivorship Bias appear in our favor? The answer is simple: don’t die or else you will die early. So how come people are still confused between good and bad luck when they are surviving? Because it’s not clear, because ultimate outcomes of survivorship bias are often hard to predict, that makes this bias tricky since there may be something like ‘doomed to success’. You can never tell if your life was supposed to end earlier than expected, but later because you figured out a way not to die too soon.

How can we avoid this bias?

With Survivorship Bias, there’s no easy way out of your cognitive traps, except for avoiding fall into them in the first place. However, if you realize that something doesn’t make sense, then you should question it because there might be evidence that you’re not seeing but could exist somewhere. For example, if your doctor prescribes a medication and provides a 50% chance of cure, ask how many patients in his practice have been cured by the same treatment before believing in the treatment.

Which profession use this bias?

Many professions require decision-makers to make quick judgements based on limited information with high stakes which usually leads them into survivor’s traps especially when they are offered incentives for making accurate decisions instead of accounting for all costs and opportunities. In this case, pay attention to what is being presented when claims about success rates are made without knowing how many failures have been omitted from the count. Also, don’t fall into the trap of believing that what worked for someone else will work for you just because of the fact that he/she survived and is doing well.

Survivorship bias examples:

• Media : Survivorship bias is present when media reports on successes in business or politics without mentioning the number of people who tried and failed.

• Medicine : Think about it, when you’re prescribed a medication after being told that there’s a 50% chance of cure with its use, you should always ask how many patients in the doctor’s practice have been cured by this treatment before believing those numbers.

• War: Many military engagements are won because commanders don’t show up for the battle – not because they win them. This is because just as comets and other unfavorable events affect survivorship rates, so do armies. If your enemies didn’t show up to fight you meaning you survived, then it doesn’t necessarily mean that you won. Instead, this means that you just didn’t lose because your enemy wasn’t present to attack you.

Conclusion.

Survivorship bias works by focusing only on the survivors of a specific event to make positive inferences about the future. Thinking that it’s an easy way to predict success is foolish because even if survivors are successful, they may not be successful for reasons other than their previous experiences, so take this information with a grain of salt and know when you should leave your survivorship biases behind.

What is the Zero-sum bias?

The zero-sum bias is a cognitive bias that describes the tendency of people to see situations as fixed quantities, so whoever ends up with the most must have taken it from someone else. This cognitive bias can affect negotiations or group dynamics, where participants may feel animosity towards other parties involved.

Why does this bias exist?

People form their own theories to explain individual behavior. The idea that anyone’s gain results in another’s loss is one example of an explanation for personal gain. Therefore, the zero-sum thinking pattern forms naturally among individuals because it accurately convinces them how social interactions work. On the other hand, if two parties are working together then « divide and conquer » makes sense; therefore it is used by many small groups and organizations that want to maintain control and influence.

Why is it dangerous?

The zero-sum bias can lead to violent conflicts, especially in the case of intergroup interactions. Once one side believes that their gain will be another’s loss, they tend to defend themselves against others and become more competitive even if it does not benefit either of them. It can also exacerbate differences between groups or classes of people, which leads to greater inequalities of opportunity and resources over time – for example, amongst countries with different levels of economic development.

How do people use this bias?

People first perceive a situation as a zero-sum game and then choose an action on this basis: « Let’s take on these guys first because we’ll get the most from them » or « We have to beat him at his own game, » etc.

People can also use this pattern of reasoning if they are given two options with different outcomes for each – for example, one option is to have $20 while another is to have nothing. People tend to choose the first option because it seems like a better deal when compared with having nothing at all, even though they would be happier if given both options.

Why do people use this bias?

People tend to use the zero-sum bias because it accurately describes much of society, which is separate into various roles and categories. Even within groups people fight for position and influence, often creating conflicts that are unnecessary. For example, many individuals in a group will compete just to be the leader or representative instead of working toward their common goal.

How can we create this bias?

Because individuals inherently understand how social interactions work (i.e., participants act according to self-interest), they need not learn directly about its existence or logic; however they can still apply this pattern through one’s own reasoning. We all take part in the economy whether we like it or not; therefore accepting self-interest as an economic concept may be beneficial to learn.

How to avoid this bias?

One can avoid the zero-sum bias by consciously rewording their own thoughts. For example, just because someone else wins does not necessarily mean that you have lost – instead, it could be a win for everyone involved in some way. There are many ways to think about interactions and relationships so one should try different patterns until they find an effective approach or combination of approaches. Lastly, it is important to consider what one wants out of all interactions rather than focusing on specific ones.

Zero-sum bias examples:

A person who applies the zero-sum bias often has a double standard, because he may try to compete with other family members for attention even though it leads to greater inequalities of opportunity and resources. The same individual might also think that businesses will treat him differently if they know more about his company; however this does not always happen or work out in one’s favor.

One example of how the government uses the zero-sum pattern is when leaders impose restrictions based on their belief that foreign workers cost domestic workers jobs. However, these two parties can both benefit from trade and cooperation; therefore situations like this should be considered carefully before making any decisions since one group (domestic workers) benefits at another group’s (foreign ones) expense – to the latter’s detriment.

Which profession use this bias?

Negotiators use the zero-sum pattern of reasoning to strategize how they can achieve their goals; however they must take other parties’ interests into account as well if there is a potential for agreement and mutual gain. People who work in government or other similar positions need to consider how their decisions will affect the people they represent – otherwise, it may lead to long-term disputes or maybe even violence.

Conclusion.

The zero-sum bias is an explanation of personal gain based on others’ loss; however, this pattern of reasoning can be dangerous if groups begin fighting over limited resources. Individuals use the zero-sum thinking pattern when there are two choices with different outcomes because it seems like a better deal by comparison, but that’s only true in certain circumstances. Lastly, one should try to reword their thoughts in a way that focuses more on what they want out of every situation instead of specific ones – because not all interactions are zero-sum.

What is the Murphy’s Law?

Murphy’s Law is a belief, idea or story that an object will break in the worst possible situation.

How does it work?

This law works by assuming that, when bad things are likely to happen, they are more likely to happen at the most inconvenient times during your day. This means that if you have something important to do, Murphy’s Law suggests that this time will be just around other distractions and having someone else disturb you during the task.

Why this bias is dangerous?

Murphy’s Law can affect our lives in two ways: we either end up worrying about all of the things we need to get done and not actually getting anything done or we end up trying very hard not to get distracted and end up wasting a lot of time that could have been used to actually do our work.

Why do people use this bias?

There are several reasons why Murphy’s Law can be helpful: it helps you avoid distractions, interruptions and giving in to other temptations when you know that you really should be working. It also gives you a warning against putting off important tasks until the last minute because there might be something else going on at that time.

How do people use this bias?

People usually follow these steps while using this bias: 1) they try to focus on what is most important for them; 2)they don’t put it off until later because once they start getting into their day and into their work, there’s always something that interrupts them; 3) they focus on the old adage « a task begun is a task half done. »

How can we create this bias?

There are several ways to create the Murphy’s Law. First, people just have to try to predict what will happen throughout their day. Second, you need to tell yourself that it is OK if something doesn’t go exactly as planned because life happens.

How to avoid this bias?

The most straightforward way of avoiding Murphy’s Law is by following through with tasks right away instead of putting them off for later. For example, if you need to send an important email or make a phone call then set a timer for a few minutes and make sure you can send the message before the timer goes off. If not, then go ahead and send it later or schedule a time to do it during another day.

Murphy’s Law examples:

When I was younger I often found myself in trouble with my parents because I always wanted to spend as much time as possible with my friends instead of studying hard. Instead of focusing on my schoolwork right from the beginning, I would procrastinate until the night before my test or homework assignment due date and try to squeeze all of the studying into a short period of time so that I could have fun with my friends throughout the rest of the week. This resulted in ending up spending hours doing homework instead of the one hour that I’d planned in the beginning.

If you can avoid thinking about Murphy’s Law when you are trying to go-through your day, then you will surely be able to get everything done on time and even save some time for yourself so that you can relax or do something fun.

Which profession use the bias?

Anyone is prone to make use of this bias, but the most common professions that make use of it are: students (high-school and college), office workers, artists, government officials.

Conclusion.

The best way to use this bias is by getting rid of it because having doubts about whether or not you can do something makes it difficult for anyone to actually focus on doing the task at hand. This means learning how to follow through with tasks until they are finished regardless of whatever distractions may come up during your work process. Knowing that life happens is important because nobody wants to continuously feel like they can’t accomplish anything. By knowing that something may come up and that you should just trust yourself to move forward, you will be able to finish a lot more of your tasks.

What is the Normalcy bias?

Normalcy bias is human inclination to ignore the possibility of risk.

In other words, if something bad doesn’t happen for a long time – we believe that nothing bad will ever happen in future either. This article focuses on definition and examples of normalcy bias .

How does it work?

Cognitive biases like the normalcy bias work because our emotions & thoughts are not separated.      

So, when something doesn’t make us feel upset (or extremely good) for a while; our mind starts thinking that nothing can be wrong with this thing/situation anymore. The longer it’s not upsetting us – the more likely we are to think that it can’t harm us in any way.

Why this bias is dangerous?

Because it prevents us from taking precautions that are really needed. Because the most likely reason why something hasn’t hurt us for a long time – is because we were feeling lucky or had some sort of protection until now. But being lucky doesn’t mean anything, since there’s no guarantee which says that our luck will last forever. This is why normalcy bias increases our chances of being hurt or killed by something/somewhere.

Why do people use this bias?

There are two main reasons for using this type of thinking:

1) It takes away the fear & anxiety which are caused by risk awareness, so it makes easier life to live without worrying about potential dangers.

2) It increases the chance of being lucky & having protection from something/somewhere.

How do people use this bias?

People use this type of thinking when they don’t feel happy about a situation for a while, so their mind starts justifying it by saying that nothing bad will happen again in future either because nothing bad has happened in last couple of months or years.

How can we create this bias?

Normalcy bias is used by companies who want to sell their products. Because convincing customers that something is completely safe and harmless – makes them feel safer while using their product (if you think « this thing can’t harm me since it didn’t harm me up until now » – you’ll be inclined to believe that it can’t harm you in future either).

How to avoid this bias?

Be careful & suspicious about the information you read – there are many companies who want to sell their products by creating normalcy bias . And media is not excluded from this. Other than that, don’t feel too safe or protected until you really know for sure what can happen or how something really works. Research as much as possible before making any decisions and always think logically about your situation/ surroundings.

Normalcy bias examples:

When discussing safety measures with friends, one of them said « See those railings over there? They’re not made out of metal so people can’t cut themselves on them. »

The fact he mentioned was true – those railings aren’t made out of metal. But that doesn’t mean that people couldn’t cut themselves on them if they were in the wrong spot. And also – just because something hasn’t hurt you yet, it doesn’t mean that this thing will never hurt you in future either and you don’t even need to know the reason why (even if there is no reason for it to happen, there’s still a chance).

Which profession use the bias?

This type of thinking is used by many companies – especially in product descriptions. For example, if a company wants to sell products that are harmful for health – they’ll create normalcy bias in their customers’ minds by saying that « our products have never harmed anyone » or « our products don’t harm people in any way. » Because when you think about it in this way – you feel safe when using the said products.

Other than that, politicians can use this bias as well. They want people to feel happy & satisfied with their working so they say things like « there are no terrorists in our country » or « we’ve never had any terrorist attacks lately. »

Conclusion:

Normalcy bias is an emotional & thought process which causes us to think negative things can never occur again (things like harm or dangerous situations). We use this type of thinking when we feel too safe about our surroundings and we start ignoring precautions that are really needed. This type of thinking increases our chances of being hurt or killed by something/somewhere. There are many companies & media sources who want to sell their products & information by creating normalcy bias . Be careful when reading anything – some people are trying to trick you with this type of thinking so they can benefit from it. Think logically and avoid using this type of thinking if possible.

What is the Appeal to probability fallacy?

The ‘Appeal to probability fallacy’ is an argument that uses probability fallaciously. For example, it might be argued that something will definitely happen because there’s a high chance it will happen. This is the appeal to probability fallacy because, while something may very well happen, using its probability of happening as evidence for its occurrence is logically flawed.

Why this bias is dangerous?

This fallacy leads to someone accepting what should be rejected by rational thinking and neglecting more probable alternative explanations. It bad habits in critical reasoning, if people become accustomed to basing their opinions on probabilities rather than concrete facts, they are unlikely benefit from new information when it becomes available. This could lead them into making decisions that are irrational or ill-informed.

Why do people use this bias?

People tend to accept information more readily when it’s framed in a way that is intuitive or easy for them to understand. Generally speaking, the easier something is to process, the more effective it will be – leading people to prefer clear and simple communication. Unfortunately, while probabilities can often be made very simple, they are not always easily understood – so some people choose instead to simplify probability further by interpreting it as fact. In particular, if a person enjoys an outcome less than alternative outcomes, they may find themselves more keen on avoiding it happening. For example, if someone dislikes being wrong about their decisions being correct then they might end up using probability fallaciously rather than accept a low chance of success.

How do people use this bias?

People can use the appeal to probability fallacy in many different ways. For example, if someone believes they might be ill, they may well seek out information that tells them what symptoms point to their illness – believing these symptoms are likely to occur if they were ill and therefore visit a doctor. Alternatively, it could mean that you estimate your chance of getting into the college of your choice as high because you believe there is a good chance you will be accepted. In reality, however, this estimate is based on the flawed reasoning that all other applicants will therefore not get in which means you must be an acceptable candidate due to simple probability. No matter how much we want something to happen or for it to be true, the fact is that one in nine million probability means there are better odds at winning the lottery.

How can we create this bias?

We are strongly influenced by the way information is presented to us – whether that’s through words or symbols. The appeal to probability fallacy stems from how easy it is to turn probabilities into statements of fact and therefore arguments made using this fallacy should always be very carefully considered before accepting them as true. To avoid being fooled, apply some common sense checks first – firstly try asking yourself ‘what other reasons could there be’ or ‘what does this mean’? If you think there might be another explanation, check if other evidence supports your hypothesis before basing your reasoning on probability.

How to avoid this bias?

Appeal to probability is a very common logical fallacy so it’s important that you are aware of its presence if planning to use probabilities in your arguments or conversations. Remember, just because you believe something likely, it doesn’t automatically mean other people hold the same beliefs – potentially leading them to be more skeptical about your words than necessary. Consider too that there are many different forms of error which can lead you to incorrectly estimate probabilities – including data that is not reliable or representative enough for making accurate predictions based upon. If you’re not sure how much stock should be put into an argument which promotes itself using appeals to probability, always go back and check the evidence again before jumping into any conclusions.

Appeal to probability fallacy examples:

If you don’t think that the appeal to probability is a dangerous bias, then you might be tempted by one of these examples.

For example, if a politician believes their party’s candidate will win an upcoming election, they may support this argument by saying there is a 75% chance of them winning – of course though this reasoning does not take into account any other factors such as opponent popularity or policy issues. If however the odds were closer to 50%, but the same argument was still made, it would begin to appear less credible…until you looked at what data had been used for making the calculations.

A new study has come out showing that ice cream sales have increased in summer months over the last several years. Assuming that this trend holds true in the future, what should we take from such data?

Which profession use this bias?

All of them. It does not matter your knowledge and skills to recognize an appeal to probability fallacy. It’s a really common cognitive bias and it can happen anywhere, anytime. That is why you need to be cautious while talking with people, especially about politics or news events. Don’t forget – even journalists are not safe from being victims of common biases they have never heard of before!

In conclusion:

So remember that not all proven truths are actually true and not all beliefs which feel right to you will be right either. While a certain level of appeal to probability is acceptable when trying to explain why something might happen, it’s important that we reserve our statements on statements of fact for when we have evidence to support them. Don’t let statistics fool you into believing there is only one single truth – get out there and make your own instead.