Secrets de Marketeurs

What is the Base Rate fallacy Bias?

This is one of the cognitive biases that we learn about in psychology class. This bias often helps us to solve problems and make good decisions on a daily basis, but it can also lead us astray.

The Base Rate Fallacy Bias is when you use current data to inform future predictions even though base rate information (generic, general information) should be used instead.

Why does it work?

When we are making any kind of prediction or judgement, we tend to weigh more heavily recent experiences and evidence that has been presented to us recently. We tend to ignore base rate information because it doesn’t seem as relevant and we fail to take into account the effects of sample size – e.g., there’s a small sample size, the evidence is not very significant.

Why this bias is dangerous?

In most cases, the base rate information will be reliable for future prediction but if we ignore it then we might end up making poor decisions that may have been avoidable if we had taken into account base rate information – e.g., a medical diagnosis based on symptoms rather than considering relevant background health information. By ignoring base rates, we may miss out on predicting certain events and by using only current data to make predictions, you increase your chances of being wrong or misinformed.

How can we create this bias?

You can create the Base Rate Fallacy Bias by telling someone that something is very likely or unlikely then providing limited relevant information that supports your claim. People will often extend the limited information to support predictions about the future without considering other factors and available base rate information (e.g., what happened previously).

How do people use this bias?

People may use the Base Rate Fallacy Bias when they feel like there isn’t enough time to consider all the necessary information. People often ignore base rates when they’re under a lot of stress and pressure – e.g., a person may have just had a baby and they need to work out how many nappies they will need, so they buy lots of nappies because that’s what most people do without considering if their baby is larger or smaller than average for example.

People also use this bias as a defense mechanism by attributing negative events to internal factors while attributing positive events to external factors – e.g., if you fail an exam you may feel like it was because the examiner didn’t like you even though there could be other valid reasons why you failed (e.g., your answers were wrong).

Which profession use the Base Rate fallacy Bias?

People mainly use the Base Rate Fallacy Bias in the medical industry. Doctors are often faced with making diagnoses based on limited information, which can lead them to ignore base rate information and make poor decisions. For example, a doctor could make a diagnosis of depression after listening to their patient’s symptoms, without considering that it’s much more likely for people who have had similar events/experiences in the past to be diagnosed with depression.

How can we avoid this bias?

To avoid this cognitive bias you need to consider all available information in context before reaching any kind of judgement or decision – e.g., when taking out insurance or gambling you should consider your past experiences and how likely you are to win or lose prior to placing any bets. People can avoid this by taking time to consider all available information and base rate information before making judgements/decisions.

Examples of Base Rate fallacy:

« I know I always forget my keys but it’s unlikely to happen again today. »

« I’ve never failed a test before so it is unlikely that I will fail this one. »

« Everyone drinks bottled water nowadays, they wouldn’t sell it if it wasn’t safe therefore the water must be safe to drink. »

« A lot of people have recently been diagnosed with depression which means there must be something wrong with me. Everyone feels depressed at times, I just need to learn to deal with things better. »

Base Rate fallacy Bias Conclusion.

The Base Rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when you ignore base rate information when making judgements or decisions. People often use this bias when they don’t have time to consider all the relevant information and in most cases the base rate information will be reliable for future prediction but if you ignore it then you might end up using poor decision-making strategies that could have been avoided with further consideration of base rate information.

What is the Omission Bias?

The Omission Bias occurs when people judge harmful actions as worse than equally harmful omissions. Omissions are things that didn’t happen, such as not paying your taxes or missing a flight. Harmful actions are things that were done, for example robbing a bank or stealing someone’s parking space. Omissions and Harmful Actions both can result in losses and cause harm to others.

Why does the Omission Bias occur?

An action is more obvious than an omission, making it easier to identify its consequences. For this reason, most people think an action will have greater consequences than the same omission because of its ability to make us feel more responsible for known outcomes of our behavior. The results might be counterintuitive, but people often believe that action is simply more dangerous than inaction.

Why is the Omission Bias dangerous?

The omission bias has consequences in everyday life because it shapes how much responsibility we feel for ourselves and others. We are naturally biased to favor our own actions over our omissions, even when they yield the same consequences. This makes us believe that harmful actions are worse than equally harmful omissions. People who make healthier choices tend to be judged less harshly by their peers for their behavior. When someone has done something positive or healthy, they are seen as « less bad » or « good ». On the other hand, if someone does something negative or unhealthy, it is considered a character flaw. It also means that people who don’t commit harmful actions are seen as more praiseworthy than those who don’t make the effort to act.

How do people use this bias?

One example of omission bias is when someone misses a flight and they blame themselves for not getting up early enough or forgetting to take the necessary steps before their departure time. Meanwhile, another person might perceive his or her missed flight as « bad luck ». When judging others’ behavior, if an individual doesn’t know all the facts behind it, he might attribute omissions to laziness rather than ignorance.

How can we create this bias?

We can create this bias by highlighting how much worse action is compared with inaction. If you want people to see how bad an action is, point out that it is worse than not doing anything. People tend to think you have more control over your actions, so showing how bad an action can be can change people’s thinking.

How to avoid this bias?

In order to avoid the Omission Bias, try focusing on facts rather than judging opinions or emotions. Look at both harmful omissions and actions without labeling them as better or worse. Remember that a person’s behavior matters more than his personality when trying to understand him. Finally, remember that omission bias is very common in our society today

Examples of Omission Bias:

*A mother who misses her child’s recital due to work commitments may feel more guilt about missing the performance than she would if she had been involved in a car accident that kept her from going to the recital.

*A person who has been diagnosed with cancer may feel worse about their actions in the past, such as smoking cigarettes, drinking alcohol excessively, or eating unhealthy foods, than they would if they were diagnosed with a chronic illness like asthma or diabetes.

*A woman whose husband is cheating on her feels more blame for what he did because he committed adultery rather than something similar to leaving him for someone else.

Which profession use the Omission Bias?

Profession that might be more likely to use this bias: Teachers and Parents. They are very focused on taking action and making sure children do not end up failing at life even though omissions can affect them just as much.

Profession that might be less likely to use this bias: Therapists and Psychiatrists. They are very focused on thinking about what omissions happened in the past, how they affected the person in the past, and how it might affect them in the future – which is exactly where this bias comes from.

Omission Bias Conclusion:

Omission Bias stems from our tendency to see someone’s actions as worse than their omissions because of how much control he has over his actions. Because action gets more blame than omission does, judging someone for his behavior will always seem harsher compared with judging him for his personality traits or character flaws. This can have consequences if you are trying to understand people’s behavior by looking at all the facts and not judging them based on emotions. By understanding this bias, we can try to avoid it in our own thinking and take an objective look at people’s behavior.

What is the Empathy Gap bias?

The Empathy Gap Bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the influence of their emotions on their own opinions and decisions. This phenomenon has shown up in psychological studies, which suggest that people tend to think they are less biased than others around them, even though they still show some of the most predictable thinking patterns. The origin of this bias might be found in our brains’ limited ability to predict how we will feel about something before it happens.

This means that by looking at just one side of an issue or problem you may not understand the whole picture for example if someone was telling you about how bad homelessness is you wouldn’t understand just how hard there lives really are without ever experiencing it yourself .

Why is this bias dangerous?

The empathy gap bias can be dangerous because of the way it might make you view your own views. If you think that your opinions are not biased but everyone else’s are, you might become inclined to ignore other people’s arguments without considering them properly, due to the fact that you assume they come from a place of bias.

Why do people use this bias?

One reason why people may use this cognitive bias is that their emotions affect their thinking and reasoning less than most other individuals around them. This means that if someone thinks about an emotionally charged issue, like same-sex marriage for example, they might come up with an argument in favor of their initial stance immediately upon learning of the topic without really understanding how it impacts others.

How do people use this bias?

People might use the Empathy Gap Bias in many different ways, for example by shutting down alternative perspectives without really considering them. This is because they are likely to believe that their initial beliefs are not biased, whereas everyone else’s are. If an individual possesses this cognitive bias then they may end up thinking that they are dispassionate about everything and everybody whereas most other individuals only see one side of the argument.

How can we create this bias?

We can easily create this Empathy Gap Bias by filtering out information that does not conform with our current set of opinions or views on a subject, instead of allowing it to enlighten us. Usually when someone first hears about a new idea or topic they tend to reject it without considering it seriously, because they believe that there is no way that the new topic could ever be valid.

Example of Empathy Gap bias:

For example if someone asked you what you thought about the most recent political scandal and you replied saying « I don’t care ». You might think this makes you seem unbiased about an issue but in reality, this makes you seem like your opinion has already been made up long ago. This means people around you will not try to change your mind because they don’t think there’s any point in trying since they believe you’ve already decided how you feel about the issue.

Which profession use the Empathy Gap bias?

Different professions can use this cognitive bias when dealing with their colleagues, for example lawyers may think that their own arguments are not biased but everyone else’s are. This means they might believe they have all the answers already without really considering an alternative perspective.

How to avoid this bias?

To avoid this Empathy Gap Bias you should try to keep an open mind about different issues and try not to filter out information that does not conform with your current set of opinions or views on a subject since it may enlighten you in ways you didn’t consider before.

Empathy Gap bias Conclusion.

To conclude this article we can say that the Empathy Gap bias is a cognitive bias and it makes you think of what your opinions about something before it even happens. People might use this cognitive bias in many different ways like shutting down alternative perspectives without really considering them because they believe that their initial beliefs are not biased whereas everyone else’s are.

What is the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon bias?

The ‘Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon’, also known as the ‘frequency illusion’, is an  cognitive bias that causes people to believe that they have just heard or seen something in a meaningful context.

Why this bias is dangerous?

It’s really dangerous because it has negative consequences, for example: when you think you’ve heard about something new before.  Thinking so may lead to the failure in explaining the new concept/idea/task to other colleagues. One of the most common examples are given below.

Why do people use this bias?

People use this bias for many different reasons, some sources state that only 10% of timing judgments are accurate, while others report that 80% of timing judgments are accurate. It has been found that the lack of accuracy in such cases is largely due to memory effects and other cognitive biases, such as availability bias.

How do people use this bias?

People use this bias by thinking that they heard about something before when they actually did not because it seems like they could (due to memory effect). For example: If you hear a new word for the first time and then check twitter/facebook/instagram/whatsapp after some minutes and find out that many people used it today, you may get the impression that you already heard about it somewhere else because lots of people talked (explained) about it all at once. The thing is, however, according to psychologists’ point of view, the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon is definitely not a real phenomenon; we can’t hear about something new and then suddenly find out that many people talked/wrote about it all at once online.

How to avoid this bias?

There are two ways to avoid this bias: first way is to stop thinking that you already heard or read something before when you actually did not (by stopping those memory effects). Second way is simply thinking both of these possibilities: i.e. Maybe I’ve seen this before and maybe I haven’t  (this will lead you away from cognitive biases such as availability bias and  misinformation effect).

This bias may be used in statistics for example  , in the research of streak shooting, when researchers give participants a small number of random events that have to happen by chance. This makes it more likely for them to remember an event happening after many consecutive ones.

How can we create this bias?

We can create this bias by having large media coverage about something/an event. For example, when a terrorist attack happens in another country, all news channels cover it for days because that is their job. As a result, people may think that they’ve heard or read about it somewhere before because of the huge media coverage within a short period of time.

Which professions use the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon bias?

Journalists are one profession which uses this bias quite often because their work depends on covering current issues around the world in order to report them to the audience. Other examples may include politicians and police officers. Not only journalists use this bias but also many other sources do for example Instagram, Twitter etc…

Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon bias Conclusion.

The Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon bias is a cognitive bias which makes people think that they heard about something before when they actually did not. We can easily make this cognitive bias by using large media coverage about an event or something.

What is the Frequency Illusion bias?

The Frequency Illusion is a cognitive bias which happens when people estimate the number of times they have encountered a particular event, by how easily it comes to mind.

How does it work?

People tend to inflate their own importance and overestimate the prevalence of positive events in their lives if asked to recall specific instances from memory. This research suggests that people think that because something happened more frequently rather than less frequently, other people must be experiencing this too. In addition, participants who recalled more frequent occurrences were also willing to pay more money for an item, suggesting that if we recall that we encounter a stimulus frequently, we attach greater value to it.

Why do people use this bias?

This cognitive tendency may have evolved as a survival technique to help us focus on the things most important to our own survival. By recalling instances of negative stimuli, we are able to identify possible threats in our environments and avoid them for safety purposes. A similar principle might explain why frequency illusions occur with positive encounters.

How do people use this bias?

People often make inferences about how common an event is by how easily it comes to mind. For example, if asked how many people they’ve told their good news too, people will overestimate the number of happy events that happened based on how easy it was for them to remember certain scenarios ].

How can we create this bias?

First, gather a small amount of data on the specific topic you’d like to create an illusion. Then select two items that are comparable but not totally identical. Distort one of these items so it appears more prevalent than the other item. Finally, present both items to people and ask them which is more common based on their judgment alone.

Why this bias is dangerous?

This cognitive illusion leads us to think that what is familiar must be common, rather than letting us base judgments off of actual information about how frequently something occurs in the world. This makes all frequencies seem over inflated and might cause people to become less motivated in habit-forming behaviors [1]. People often fall victim to this bias when they choose between two items for purchase, only because the one item is more familiar than the other. This might be prevented by making people aware of and discomforting with their tendency to overestimate frequencies.

How to avoid this bias?

One can avoid falling prey to this cognitive illusion by striving towards collecting accurate, objective data rather than relying on memory search. It is also advisable that when faced with a decision or judgement call, you should try your best not rely solely on recall. If possible, consult an outside source such as a statistician or an algorithm which does not suffer from the same biases we do. Another way around this bias may be to make inferences based on how many people are needed to create a given event for it to occur, rather than by multiplying the number of times something has occurred by the number of people it has affected.

Example of Frequency Illusion bias:

For instance, if asked how many different beers have you had in your life? Most people would be able to think about 10 or so before being halted. However, if asked how many times each type of beer you’ve tasted there are likely hundreds. This is an example of the frequency illusion because both questions are asking about the same but one seems more prevalent due its greater frequency in memory recall.

Which profession use the Frequency Illusion bias?

A study by the same authors found that salespeople were knowledgeable about how easily specific items come to mind, and as a result, would often place those items in their store windows more frequently. In fact, because people tend to attach greater value to things they recall more often, the salespeople were actually able to increase the value of those goods through this bias. Consumers need to be aware of this tactic so they can avoid being tricked into buying something simply because it is called out rather than on its true merit.

Frequency Illusion bias Conclusion.

The Frequency Illusion bias is a cognitive illusion that makes us believe some events are more common than they actually are. We do not realize how often some things come to mind, and this leads us to overestimate their prevalence. The bias can be dangerous because it reduces motivation towards actions which need repetition in order to produce results. People might buy something simply because it is familiar, even if that product has no real value. This bias can be avoided by using strategies such as consulting an outside source, or basing judgement on data rather than memory recall. There are a number of professions which exploit this cognitive illusion for profit through the use of high frequency displays in retail stores.

What is the Mood-congruent memory bias?

The mood-congruent memory bias is the tendency to recall more easily information that matches with our current mood. It  is also known as Mood-state dependent memory. For example, if you are sad about something, it’s easier remember things that made you feel even sadder .

Why do people use this bias?

People use this bias because they want to avoid unpleasant or painful emotions and by doing so, they focus on what makes them feel good so they can experience greater pleasure, happiness and satisfaction in their lives. Essentially, if they are happy right now, then recalling information that makes them feel even happier will allow them to maintain this momentum of positive feelings. It is attempt to alleviate emotional discomfort through selective memory.

How do people use this bias?

People use the mood-congruent memory bias in many different ways. For example, if you are happy with your significant other, then recalling memories about how amazing they are will only fuel the fire so you’ll feel even better than before and want to be around them even more. Also, when we’re sad, it’s because of something that has happened (e.g., someone has wronged us) or what might happen (e.g., worrying). So when we get reminded of these related events or possibilities that make us sad, our mind will automatically think of all the pain and discomfort associated with them making us feel worse than before which can lead to avoiding these things altogether.

How can we create this bias?

We can create the mood-congruent memory bias by exposing ourselves only to things that make us happy, turning on music that makes us feel better, avoiding anything upsetting or depressing. By doing all these, we’ll spend less time thinking about negative things and more time happily living in our own little world of happiness.

Some companies use this technique to manipulate consumers into choosing certain products (e.g., Coca Cola). If you’re feeling good when consuming Coca Cola, then you are more likely to remember the taste of Coca Cola in a positive light compared to other drinks. This will make you want to drink it even more and see your mood improve further making you feel even happier.

Other companies also use this technique but with less good intentions (e.g., an abusive relationship). It is not uncommon for people in abusive relationships to only remember the happy times spent together. They do this because they don’t want to look at what’s really happening or face reality. Furthermore, they’ll justify all the abuse claiming that the abuser only did that because he/she really loves them deep down inside and wants what’s best for them.

How can we avoid this bias?

We can avoid this bias by being aware that it exists and making a conscious effort to stay neutral about everything which allows us to think rationally. This way, we won’t always remember things in a positive light because they’ll be more likely to occur again if the situation is very similar. Also, we need to be aware of our biases towards certain people, organizations or companies so we don’t keep falling for their tricks.

What are some examples of Mood-congruent memory bias?

In one study, participants either watched a sad video of a woman describing her trauma from forest fires or a happy video where David Copperfield made an elephant disappear before their eyes. When asked about what they saw on the videos, those who were made to feel sad after watching the sad video said that they saw more detail and less filler information compared to those who watched the happy video.

In another example, people felt less affection for a « previously loved » item when they were told it had been accidentally broken than when they were told it was out of commission because a friend is moving away.

Which profession use this bias?

Any profession where you have to convince other people to take action (e.g., salespeople, politicians, lawyers). Because there are so many different ways in which someone can present themselves, consumers will often generalize their experiences based on how they feel at any given moment. Salespeople know this so they’ll try their best to get people to buy something when they’re feeling good about themselves. Politicians will try their best to make you feel better about your country when times are bad and make you unhappy with other countries if things are going well for them. Lawyers use this bias by convincing the jury that one person is guilty or not guilty depending on whether they want to take action against him/her or not.

Mood-congruent memory bias Conclusion.

The mood-congruent memory bias is a cognitive bias where we remember things in a way that conforms with our current mood. We then use those memories as evidence to back up whatever it is that we’re feeling, whether it’s happiness or sadness. This is why some people will feel more affection for an item when they’re told it was broken accidentally compared to those who are told the item has been taken away because someone else needs it. It can be used by companies to manipulate consumers into buying their products and also used by anyone trying to convince other people of something (e.g., politicians, lawyers). The best way to avoid this bias is to become aware of its existence so you don’t fall for the tricks which are being played on you.